Lionsgate’s From the World of John Wick: Ballerina is tracking for a $35M-$40M opening weekend, based on three-weekend projections released Thursday.

Directed by Len Wiseman, with additional photography overseen by John Wick creator Chad Stahelski, the film is set to premiere on June 6, delayed a year from its original release date. The R-rated action movie, led by Ana de Armas and featuring a cameo from Keanu Reeves as John Wick, is resonating strongly with men over 25, showing high first-choice preference and solid unaided awareness among the broader over-25 audience.

For comparison, John Wick: Chapter 4 (93% PostTrak, 82% definite recommend) attracted 48% men over 25, 22% women over 25, and 22% men under 25, with a diverse audience (22% Latino/Hispanic, 21% Asian American, 19% Black) and set a franchise record with a $73.8M debut in 2023. Ballerina’s projected opening surpasses John Wick: Chapter 2’s $30.2M, aligning with other spinoffs like Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes ($44.6M) and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore ($42.1M).

Ballerina’s buzz has been amplified by Lionsgate’s CinemaCon footage in April and de Armas’ active promotion on social media. Ballerina’s June release was strategically timed to leverage Reeves’ availability for promotion. Production costs, including reshoots, are estimated at $80M-$90M, with Lionsgate funding via foreign sales while retaining U.S. and UK rights.

The John Wick franchise has grossed $1.03B globally, with Chapter 4 earning $440M+ and a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Cannes Premiere for Wes Anderson’s Latest

Also opening wide on June 6 is Focus Features’ The Phoenician Scheme, directed by Wes Anderson, which debuts at Cannes on Sunday. Following a limited release on May 30, the film is expected to earn high single digits in its wide expansion, similar to Anderson’s Asteroid City, which opened to $9M wide after an $853K limited start ($142K per screen) in 2023.