DOHA: With the remains of one hostage still in Gaza, the first phase of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas is nearly complete, after a two-month process plagued by delays and finger-pointing.
Now, the key players — including Israel, the Palestinian militant Hamas group, the United States and a diverse list of international parties — are to move to a far more complicated second phase that could reshape the Middle East.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan — which was approved by the U.N. Security Council — lays out an ambitious vision for ending Hamas’ rule of Gaza. If successful, it would see the rebuilding of a demilitarized Gaza under international supervision, normalized relations between Israel and the Arab world and a possible pathway to Palestinian independence.
But if the deal stalls, Gaza could be trapped in an unstable limbo for years to come, with Hamas remaining in control of parts of the territory, Israel’s army enforcing an open-ended occupation and its residents stuck homeless, unemployed, unable to travel abroad and dependent on international aid to stay alive.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the prime minister of Qatar and a key mediator, said over the weekend that the ceasefire is at a critical point, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to travel to the White House this month to discuss the next steps.
Here is a closer look at the next stages of the ceasefire and the potential pitfalls.
Trumps plan calls for the formation of an international force — known as International Stabilization Force — to maintain security and train Palestinian police to one day to take over. That force has not yet been formed, and a deployment date has not been announced.
Some countries — including Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan and Indonesia — have expressed willingness to participate. But no firm decisions have been made.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic talks, says partner countries are holding meetings this month to finalize operations. He predicted “boots on the ground” in early 2026.
But there are pitfalls. The force’s command structure and authorities remain unknown.
Hamas says it will oppose any attempts by the force to disarm it, and contributing nations may not to want to risk clashes to take away its weapons. Israel, meanwhile, is hesitant to trust an international body with its security needs.
Trump has said he will head an international board to supervise a committee of Palestinian technocrats running Gaza’s day-to-day affairs. The board will oversee reconstruction and an open-ended reform process by the Palestinian Authority, with the goal of one day allowing the internationally recognized authority to govern Gaza.
So far, Trump is the only board member officially named, though former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s name has been floated as a possibility. Another U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door deliberations, says members of the board will be announced in the coming weeks.
The key challenge will be forming a board that can work with Israel, Hamas, the mediators and international aid agencies.
Trump’s plan calls for an economic development plan to “rebuild and energize Gaza,” which suffered widespread destruction during the war and where most of the territory’s 2 million people are displaced and unemployed.
Still, no such plan has been announced. Egypt is expected to host a conference this month for donor nations to pledge reconstruction aid.
The United Nations has estimated the cost of rebuilding Gaza would amount to $70 billion. Raising that money will be difficult. Even more difficult would be finding a plan acceptable to the many governments involved, along with their private sector partners.
