The United Nations Security Council will begin its first round of informal voting on Thursday to measure support for candidates seeking to become the next UN secretary general. The confidential ballots mark the start of a selection process that will eventually determine who succeeds Antonio Guterres when his second five year term ends later this year.
Seven candidates from different regions are currently competing for the position. They include Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, who heads the UN nuclear watchdog, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, former Senegalese President Macky Sall and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu. Additional candidates are still allowed to enter the race before the selection process concludes.
The next secretary general will take charge of the United Nations at a time when the organization faces mounting criticism over its effectiveness and structure. Calls for reform have increased as member states push for a more efficient institution, arguing that the UN must reduce bureaucracy, eliminate overlapping responsibilities among its agencies and improve its ability to respond to global crises.
The first stage of the selection process involves informal straw polls conducted behind closed doors among the Security Council’s 15 members. During these secret ballots, council members indicate whether they encourage, discourage or have no opinion on each candidate. The votes are non binding but provide an early indication of which candidates have the strongest support and which face significant opposition.
At this stage, all Security Council members use identical ballots, meaning diplomats can see the overall level of support for each candidate without knowing whether opposition comes from one of the council’s five permanent members. Those permanent members are China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, each of which holds veto power over the final recommendation.
As the selection process moves forward, the permanent members will use ballots in a different color during later rounds of voting. This allows diplomats to determine whether any candidate has received a negative vote from a veto holding country, information that often plays a decisive role in narrowing the field.
There is currently no clear favorite to replace Guterres. Previous UN leadership contests have required several rounds of voting over many weeks before a consensus candidate emerged. Diplomats expect this year’s process could continue throughout the summer and possibly into late September or early October if no candidate gains broad enough support. If the Security Council remains divided, the process could take even longer.
Once the council agrees on a single candidate, it will formally recommend that person to the 193 member UN General Assembly. The recommendation requires at least nine votes in favor and no veto from any of the five permanent members. The General Assembly then votes to confirm the appointment, a step that has traditionally been considered a formality after the Security Council reaches agreement.
The current president of the Security Council is the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Its ambassador to the United Nations, Zenon Mukongo Ngay, confirmed that the first round of straw polls will take place on Thursday morning. He also said that Ugandan candidate Olara Otunnu will participate in the voting despite not taking part in the informal public hearings completed by the other candidates.
According to his biography, Otunnu played an important role in shaping the current selection process. He states that he introduced the system of informal straw polls while serving as president of the Security Council in 1981. That method has since become a key part of the process used to identify the candidate most likely to secure broad international support before the final appointment is made.
