ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has reported a discrepancy of more than $18 billion in its trade data over five fiscal years to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Officials say the gap has been identified and reconciled following a review of the country’s import reporting systems.
The discrepancy covers fiscal years 2020-21 to 2024-25. It emerged during a review of trade figures compiled through two different systems: the Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) and the Pakistan Single Window (PSW).
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) prepared a detailed report examining the differences and submitted it to the Ministries of Planning and Finance. The report was also shared with the IMF as part of efforts to address concerns over the accuracy and consistency of Pakistan’s trade statistics.
The review followed concerns over discrepancies in bilateral trade figures with China. In particular, a significant mismatch was identified between Pakistan’s recorded imports from China and China’s reported exports to Pakistan.
An inquiry initiated by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) in 2025 found that import data used by the FBR’s Directorate of Research and Statistics and the PBS had not been comprehensively updated since 2017. The data was generated through the WeBOC system.
As a result, imports recorded under certain Goods Declarations introduced later were not fully reflected in the datasets used for official reporting. The omissions led to an underestimation of reported import values, with the gap increasing over time.
A subsequent committee examined the transition from PRAL-based data to figures generated through the PSW system. Its findings showed that the difference between the two datasets widened significantly during the five-year period.
The discrepancy stood at $1.4 billion in fiscal year 2020-21 and increased to $2.527 billion in 2021-22. It reached $2.402 billion in 2022-23 before rising sharply to $5.572 billion in 2023-24. In 2024-25, the difference further increased to $6.224 billion.
The analysis found that most of the divergence was concentrated in specific Goods Declaration categories, particularly those linked to facilitation schemes. Other categories showed relatively smaller differences, suggesting that newly introduced or expanded reporting arrangements were a major source of the inconsistencies.
The issue also raised concerns about the impact of changing data sources on the country’s reported trade deficit, particularly amid Pakistan’s engagement with the IMF. Consultations held by the PBS in June and July 2025 highlighted the need to manage the transition carefully to maintain consistency in official economic statistics.
The committees recommended integrating the PBS and FBR research systems with the PSW, conducting annual reviews of trade reporting procedures and establishing mechanisms to exchange trade data with major trading partners.
The PBS was also advised to strengthen coordination with Chinese authorities and the International Trade Centre to ensure that Chinese exports to Afghanistan passing through Pakistan were properly reflected in trade records.
Officials said the discrepancies had been reconciled. The findings have highlighted the need for stronger coordination between institutions, improved data coverage and regular verification of trade figures to prevent similar inconsistencies in the future.
