Middle East tensions are expected to drive a significant increase in global energy prices, the World Bank reported.
According to the bank’s latest forecast, energy costs could rise by up to 24 percent in 2026. The report noted that even if regional tensions ease by May, prices are likely to remain elevated.
However, further escalation or disruptions to supply could push costs even higher. Attacks on oil and gas infrastructure and obstacles to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have already strained supply chains, with noticeable effects in global markets.
Brent crude oil is projected to average $86 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 per barrel in 2025.
Experts warned that additional damage to energy facilities or prolonged trade route disruptions could raise prices further.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may gradually recover, potentially returning to pre-conflict levels by October, depending on regional stability.
