Pakistan could face a wheat shortage of as much as 3 million tons in the coming crop year, potentially forcing the country to spend around $1.2 billion on wheat imports, if immediate measures are not taken to encourage farmers ahead of the Rabi season.
The warning has been issued by the Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI), which has urged the federal and provincial governments to introduce urgent policies aimed at increasing domestic wheat production and protecting the country’s food security.
Speaking at a press conference, PKI President Khalid Mahmood Khokhar said continued uncertainty over agricultural policies had weakened farmers’ ability to maintain wheat production. He claimed that ineffective government decisions over the past three years had resulted in losses of approximately Rs. 2,200 billion for farmers.
Khokhar warned that the challenges facing the agriculture sector could eventually translate into higher import requirements and additional pressure on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves.
Global and Domestic Challenges Raise Production Costs
According to the farmers’ organization, wheat growers are facing rising input and operational costs at a time when returns from the crop remain uncertain.
The PKI pointed to higher diesel prices, increased electricity tariffs for agricultural tube wells and longer international shipping routes as factors that have contributed to higher production and import costs.
The organization also highlighted international disruptions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, instability affecting the Gulf region and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, which it said could create additional risks for food and agricultural supply chains.
The farmers’ body warned that if domestic wheat production is not strengthened before the next Rabi sowing season, Pakistan could be forced to rely more heavily on imported wheat, increasing the country’s foreign exchange requirements.
Farmers Demand Restoration of Wheat Support Price
The PKI has called for the government to restore the wheat support price to Rs. 4,702 per 40 kilograms, arguing that the move is necessary to provide farmers with an adequate incentive to cultivate the crop.
According to the organization, the estimated net cost of producing wheat currently stands at around Rs. 3,761 per 40 kilograms. It argued that the proposed support price would allow farmers to achieve a standard profit margin of about 25 percent.
The organization believes that a predictable procurement and pricing policy could encourage farmers to bring unused or fallow agricultural land back under cultivation.
With appropriate incentives, the PKI has set an ambitious target of achieving a wheat harvest of approximately 31 million tons.
Government Urged to Announce Procurement Policy Before Rabi Season
The farmers’ organization has also urged Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Federal Minister for National Food Security to finalize and officially announce the wheat procurement policy before the end of August.
The PKI said farmers require sufficient time to make decisions about crop selection, purchase agricultural inputs and prepare their land before the Rabi sowing season begins.
According to the organization, uncertainty over procurement arrangements and wheat prices can discourage farmers from allocating land to wheat, potentially widening the gap between domestic production and national consumption.
PKI Seeks Broader Fertilizer Subsidies
The PKI has also called for changes to the government’s fertilizer subsidy mechanism.
It proposed that future subsidies should be linked to nutrient content rather than individual fertilizer brands or products and should cover all major phosphatic fertilizers instead of being restricted primarily to DAP.
The organization referred to a decision of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) in March 2022, which, according to the PKI, covered different grades of phosphatic fertilizers.
The farmers’ body said a large number of growers use phosphatic fertilizer alternatives, including Nitrophos, TSP, SSP, MAP, NP, NPS and NPK.
Warning Over DAP-Focused Subsidies
The PKI warned that limiting subsidies to DAP could create distortions in the fertilizer market and encourage speculative activity or black-market trading.
It also argued that excessive reliance on subsidized DAP could increase the country’s import bill and place additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
According to the organization, adequate domestic supplies of several alternative phosphatic fertilizers are already available to meet the requirements of the 2026-27 crop cycle.
Food Security at Risk
The farmers’ organization maintained that wheat production needs to be treated as a national food-security priority rather than simply a seasonal agricultural issue.
A significant decline in domestic production could increase Pakistan’s dependence on international markets, exposing consumers to fluctuations in global wheat prices, freight costs and exchange-rate movements.
The PKI has therefore urged the government to provide farmers with a clear wheat procurement framework, restore the proposed support price and adopt a broader fertilizer subsidy policy before the Rabi season begins.
