The war in the Middle East has stalemated. Notwithstanding its economic and military, and technological strength, the USA has failed to defeat Iran. The Iranian regime is intact; the war capacity of Iran, though weakened, has not been neutralized; the economic sanction regime, although in force during the past five decades, coupled with the freezing of Iran’s assets, has failed to strangle Iran economically. The recent blockade of the Iranian seaports, and new rigorous wave of economic sanctions, though hurting the economy of Iran, have failed to force it to concede any concession to its adversaries. The world is perplexed how Iran has withstood all this military, technological, economic and diplomatic onslaught from its powerful enemies.
The current situation of the war signifies some obvious scenarios including: 1) the USA would be reluctant to launch any big airstrike on Iran or opt for any ground assault given the Iranian difficult terrain; 2) the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would continue until the USA’s acquiescence in implementing the roadmap given in the Islamabad MoU for peace talks; 3) the Hoathi flare up has opened a new front diverting pressure from Iran with the probability that the Hoathis would close Bab Al-Mandeb; 4) the closure of two important chokepoints for a longer period would deal a devastating blow to the global economy, and particularly the oil exports of Saudi Arabia; 5) the American allies in Middle East have borne the brunt of the war, and would further suffer if the second waterway is closed; 6) the war in Gaza, and unprovoked attacks on Iran have proved a waterloo for the USA exposing the limits of its military power and its utter failure to protect its allies.
The secret deal with the Hoathis for the protection of commercial tankers belonging to it and Israel has come as a rude shock for the countries which have been depending on it for strategic protection during the past many decades hosting its military bases and investing their oil wealth in its weapons, war planes, and defence systems. These military bases were targeted by Iran, and the Arab countries had to suffer collateral losses. The American failure to plan the war considering its international and regional fallouts was a big strategic mistake lending some credence to Iranian claim that the Western world was only interested in the hydrocarbon resources of the Middle East, and that spending huge oil wealth and buying paper agreements for security would not help Arab countries.
The flare up in the long festering Hoathi conflict in Yemen has not only relieved Iran from the pressure of war, it has introduced a new complex factor in the security situation in the region. The flare up in the Hoathi conflict was sudden and ferocious. The Ansarullah leaders claim that the provocation came from the Saudi leaders by beginning a new campaign of airstrikes against their positions in Yemen in contravention of the ceasefire. The situation seems to be spiraling out of hand. Hoathis have captured strategic places around Bab Al-Mandib and can close the second vital chokepoint in the region. For the time being, the waterway is closed only for Saudi ships.
Iran says it has nothing to do with the fresh flare-up. Reports suggest that Hoathis have been using sophisticated arms in their fresh attacks. Speculations are rife that Israel is behind the flare-up, and supply of arms to Hoathi rebels with the help of a Gulf State. This factor in view, the USA decline to extend support to its ally 9 Saudi Kingdom) against the militia is understandable. President Donald was quite flippant telling the Saudi Crown Prince that the Hoathis had called his administration pleading with them to stay away from the conflict. Pity for Arabs. Either the speculation about the secret deal with Hoathis as elaborated in a preceding para is true or the USA leader does not want to get involved in an open-ended conflict after the war on Iran.
The analysts try to find a parallel between the combined invasion on Iran by Israel and the USA, and the Suez Canal crisis back in 1956, which brought down the European Empires (British and French) within a short span of time. The Gaza war and invasion of Iran would also bring down the USA Empire in the greater Middle East in the coming years. The war has almost ended without any clear victory for the USA nor a clear defeat for Iran – with the former’s power, prestige and reliability as a strategic ally in tatters. The Middle Eastern republics, sheikhdoms, emirates and kingdoms will seek alternative strategic allies or work out a framework for peaceful co-existence with Iran. It will take some time, but it is inevitable.
The USA will itself try to strike a deal with Iran – probably after the midterm elections. President Donald Trump will try to prolong the current stalemate in the war for another two months shamelessly claiming victory for the USA by having pushed Iran’s nuclear ambitions for half a century back to make the USA and the world safer places. His advisors warn him that talks with Iran according to the roadmap provided in the Islamabad MoU at this stage would further damage the electoral chances of the republican candidates, as the document, signed in June this year, had elicited harsh criticism in the USA, and was even disapproved by President Trump’ close political allies. This had disappointed him prompting him to find an excuse to wriggle out of it. This is what he finally did claiming that the MoU was dead.
The fresh Iranian offer that their side was ready to open the Strait of Hormuz provided the USA would agree to discharge its liabilities in terms of the Islamabad MoU concerning the sanction relief, release of its frozen assets, and provision of funds for the rebuilding of their country, and lifting of the blockade against its Seaports. However, the attention of the regional leaders, for the time being, has been riveted by the worsening security situation arising out of the Hoathi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
