Pakistan is expected to spend around $1.29 billion on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports between November 2026 and February 2027 as rising demand and disruptions to supplies from Qatar push the country towards expensive spot-market purchases.
The government plans to import 22 LNG cargoes during the four-month period to meet the expected increase in gas consumption during winter. Of these, 12 cargoes are expected to arrive under long-term agreements, while the remaining 10 will be purchased from the international spot market at significantly higher prices.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted LNG supplies from Qatar, increasing uncertainty over Pakistan’s ability to meet seasonal demand through existing contracts. As a result, the country is preparing to rely more heavily on spot purchases, which expose it to fluctuations in international energy prices.
According to estimates discussed by officials, the 10 spot-market cargoes could cost approximately $863 million. The estimated price of each cargo is around $86.3 million, based on a spot LNG rate of $26.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the latest price quoted in a tender.
In comparison, LNG imports under long-term arrangements are expected to cost approximately $429.83 million. This includes 11 cargoes from Qatar valued at $351.41 million and one cargo from Italy’s Eni, estimated to cost $78.42 million in January.
The combined cost of the 22 cargoes is projected to reach $1.29 billion, although the final bill will depend on actual supplies, contractual quantities, applicable prices and prevailing international market rates.
January 2027 is expected to be the most expensive month, with eight cargoes projected to cost around $437.32 million. December is also likely to see substantial import expenditure, estimated at approximately $369 million, as demand rises and the government secures additional supplies.
Pakistan has long relied on government-to-government agreements with Qatar to meet part of its LNG requirements. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has two long-term supply agreements with QatarEnergy, covering the periods from 2016 to 2031 and from 2021 to 2031.
Under these arrangements, PSO is entitled to receive approximately 6.75 million tonnes of LNG annually, equivalent to 108 cargoes. However, weaker domestic demand earlier this year led PSO and QatarEnergy to agree to divert 24 cargoes to other destinations.
The situation has since become more challenging as the country prepares for higher winter consumption while facing uncertainty over international supplies. Officials discussed the projected demand and import requirements at an energy task force meeting earlier this month.
The current plan envisages securing only part of the required gas through long-term contracts, with the balance to be purchased from the spot market. This approach could increase the financial burden on the energy sector, particularly if international LNG prices remain elevated.
Meanwhile, PSO and Qatar have issued notices to review their LNG contracts. PSO is seeking federal government consent to pursue a review of its agreement with QatarEnergy. Both contracts are scheduled to expire in 2031.
The rising import bill highlights Pakistan’s continued exposure to international energy market volatility. Higher LNG procurement costs could place additional pressure on the country’s foreign exchange resources and increase the financial challenges involved in ensuring an uninterrupted gas supply during the winter months.
