KARACHI/LAHORE: Punjab and Sindh are facing a projected 22 per cent shortage of irrigation water during the ongoing Rabi season, raising concerns about water availability for wheat and other winter crops as Pakistan’s major reservoirs hold 6.167 million acre-feet of usable water.
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has approved a 22 per cent water shortage for the Rabi season, which runs from October 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027. The projection is based on anticipated river inflows of 21.268 million acre-feet against estimated provincial water withdrawals of 29.183 million acre-feet.
The shortfall could create difficulties for farmers in the country’s two major agricultural provinces, particularly during the critical period of winter crop cultivation. Wheat, Pakistan’s main Rabi crop, is among the crops at risk, along with barley, tobacco, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes.
Timely irrigation is essential for healthy crop development, particularly for wheat. A shortage of water at important growth stages could affect crop productivity and reduce overall yields, potentially adding pressure to the country’s agricultural output.
According to the latest figures released by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), the combined usable water storage in the country’s three major reservoirs — Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma — stands at 6.167 million acre-feet.
Tarbela Reservoir currently holds 2.456 million acre-feet of water, with its water level recorded at 1,488.93 feet. The Indus River inflow at the reservoir stands at 25,600 cusecs, while the outflow is recorded at 45,000 cusecs.
Mangla Reservoir has a storage volume of 3.462 million acre-feet, with its water level standing at 1,186.90 feet. The Jhelum River inflow at Mangla is recorded at 3,800 cusecs, compared with an outflow of 33,000 cusecs.
Meanwhile, Chashma Reservoir holds 249,000 acre-feet of usable water, with its water level recorded at 647.80 feet. At Chashma Barrage, the Indus River inflow stands at 113,200 cusecs, while the outflow is recorded at 54,000 cusecs.
Other river flow measurements also indicate varying water levels across the country’s monitoring points. At Head Marala, the Chenab River inflow is recorded at 7,400 cusecs against an outflow of 2,000 cusecs. At Nowshera, both the inflow and outflow of the Kabul River stand at 8,200 cusecs.
A WAPDA spokesperson clarified that the inflow and outflow figures for the Indus River at Tarbela and Chashma, the Jhelum River at Mangla and the Kabul River at Nowshera represent average flows recorded over a 24-hour period.
However, figures for Head Marala and other monitoring points are based on readings taken at 6am on the day of the report.
The projected water shortage has raised concerns about the country’s agricultural outlook as wheat sowing continues across Punjab and Sindh. Limited canal supplies could force farmers to rely more heavily on groundwater to meet irrigation requirements, increasing electricity and fuel expenses associated with pumping water.
The situation could particularly affect farmers in areas that depend heavily on canal irrigation and have limited access to alternative water sources.
According to the Food Security Outlook issued by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) for October 2026 to May 2027, Pakistan’s national Rabi wheat harvest is expected to remain around average despite forecasts of average to above-average winter rainfall.
However, the outlook warns that persistent irrigation shortages, below-average groundwater availability and high agricultural input and fuel costs could constrain crop production, particularly in Punjab and Sindh.
The combination of limited irrigation supplies and rising farming costs could therefore pose challenges for agricultural productivity during the current Rabi season, making efficient water management increasingly important for protecting winter crops and maintaining food security.
