Central Asia is the core region of the Asian continent and stretches from the Caspian Sea in the west to China in the east and from Afghanistan in the south to Russia in the north. The vast area of Central Asia, sparse population and abundant resources demand a very careful approach in dealing with the ever energy-hungry world. Superpowers like the USA, China and Russia are involved in the Asia region to continue to exert their influence in any energy-related deal for their interests in the outcome of the new Great Game. The region has the world’s biggest reserves of untapped fossil fuels, and estimates range from 50 to 110 billion barrels of oil, and from 170 to 463 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
The Central Asian Republics, individually and collectively, moved to forge multi-vector links with states in the region and outside, while maintaining their traditional ties to Russia. The USA is also interested in various oil and gas export routes. The USA favours the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline because of the economic dependency it creates of regional powers on each other, minimizing the chances of conflicts and maximizing their cooperation as well.
Russia prefers the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline (IPI) over TAPI and has offered to finance the projects. Pakistan due to its links with both central and south Asia, assumes great significance in the whole scenario. Its importance can enhance manifold, would it successfully play a bridge state role through mutually beneficial trade and by providing easy access to these landlocked states?
After the disintegration of the USSR, the Chinese trade has increased 200 times to reach $80 billion in 2020. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would link Gwadar with China. The Chinese idea of an Asian highway and The US idea of a New Silk Road are gaining gradual acceptance. The regional trade benefits by developing 58 various potential corridors to link Central Asia to sea ports in Iran and Pakistan were studied. The majority of these roads would link to Pakistani ports. The calculated increase in the regional trade was 170 percent, whereas 115 percent was the increase in combined transit trade. The total growth was estimated to be $6 billion with 5 percent GDP growth annually. The participating countries would enjoy enhanced employment of 2 million jobs at a combined nominal investment of less than $6 billion for the entire region. TAPI with $2 billion and power projects of worth $500 million are being reconsidered to expand the options among the regional countries in general and Pakistan in particular to fulfill its energy demands.
Russia will also take a central role, as Moscow will be able to secure access to the Gwadar deep seaport in Pakistan’s Balochistan province– that will prove a gamechanger for the Russian economy. Pakistan should seek close energy cooperation with Russian energy companies to explore oil and gas reserves in Pakistan as well as establishing Russian export zones in Gwadar to facilitate trade between Russia and its clientele across the world.
Pakistan must develop close trade and commerce relations with Russia through Central Asia, and also facilitate the construction of road and railway infrastructure needed to connect Russian export hubs.
As India brings SAARC to its knees due to its hegemonic ambitions, Pakistan needs to form new alliances with its Central Asian partners based on quantifiable interests– while engaging all South Asian countries at a bi-lateral level to promote trade. Pakistan’s policymakers must re-consider Pakistan as a Central Asian State.
Pakistan would be a hub of economic activity, or roundabout for trade in the region, by providing links in the form of ports, pipelines and land routes to facilitate at the domestic, regional and even at the global level. India, with a population of around 1.3 billion, is the world’s second most populous country and ranks fifth in the world in terms of primary energy consumption, accounting for about 4 percent of the world’s commercial energy demand. India has been making all out efforts to persuade Pakistan for utilizing the most beneficial and preferable land route to Central Asia via Pakistan. India would have to rethink its strategy in the region to gain access to Central Asian energy resources for its future needs that are going to be increased 95 percent by 2030. Engagement of Central Asia is essential to Indian economic security to fulfill the future energy requirements, and the North and South route provide alternatives to Indian trade with Central Asian states, but at a higher cost than the route through Pakistan.
