Despite the pressure and standoff, the possibility of an invasion of Iran by ground forces is considered to be extremely low by Chinese military analyst Jiang Shouken. He has identified seven major military factors that make it highly impractical for Israel and the US to push forward with their aggressive air strikes into Iran.
First, the vast area of 1.648 million square kilometers that makes up the country of Iran is 74 times larger than that of Israel. In conventional warfare, it takes approximately 50 civilians per soldier to occupy and secure civilian areas. This translates into 600,000 soldiers or more to successfully occupy the country, which has a civilian population of 90 million. This is significantly more than the 70,000 or so soldiers that Israel has available after dispatching forces to Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon.
Second, Israel is already engaged in a standoff with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Third, the 1,600-kilometer-long supply lines of Iran will be problematic for the invading forces. Fourth, Iraq has already announced that it will not allow its land to be used to facilitate the ground invasion of Iran.
Fifth, Iran already has 440 kilograms of uranium that could be used to make a nuclear bomb. An advance of ground troops could trigger a nuclear response. Sixth, the Iranian military infrastructure remains strong in spite of the air strikes. Although the strikes have reportedly destroyed 80% of Iranian air defense systems and have severely damaged missile manufacturing plants at Paeen and Shahid, Iran still has the capacity to defend itself against a ground invasion.
Finally, Jiang points out that air power alone can attain strategic goals at this time. The United States, with its six aircraft carriers in the region, along with the widest display of Western air power since World War II, enables Israel and the US to attack Iran successfully without resorting to ground troops.
Experts emphasize that although aerial attacks have weakened Iranian military power, a full-scale ground invasion of Iran is not only mathematically but also logistically impossible.
In conclusion, while air strikes continue to plague Iran and tensions remain high, a ground invasion of the country remains off the agenda.
