A year has passed since the Pahalgam attack led to Operation Sindoor in early May 2025, aggravating Pakistan-India relations. From any standpoint, Pahalgam was a false flag operation to blame Pakistan for its involvement in that terrorist attack. Islamabad, while condemning the incident, had offered India a neutral investigation. However, instead of following a prudent approach to deal with that crisis, India launched Operation Sindoor, leading to a brief war from May 7–10.
The lack of strategic prudence on the part of India in conducting its relations with Pakistan sadly reflects how unwise the Modi regime is in the realm of crisis and conflict management. Unfortunately, the current standoff in Indo-Pak relations is unprecedented. Since the promulgation of the Jammu & Kashmir Reorganization Act of August 5, 2019, Pakistan downgraded its diplomatic ties with New Delhi, suspended train, land and air communication with India, and imposed a ban on using its airspace for Indian flights. It has been around seven years that the standoff in Indo-Pak relations has continued, but the most damaging act was done last year in April when, following the Pahalgam attack, India put the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 in abeyance.
Since the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008, the Uri terrorist attack of November 2016, the Pulwama and Balakot attacks of February 2019, the annexation of Jammu & Kashmir into the fold of the Indian Union in August 2019, and the Pahalgam attacks of April 2025, India-Pakistan relations have gone from bad to worse.
How has the lack of strategic prudence, particularly on the part of the Modi regime, aggravated relations with Pakistan? Why has the process of confidence-building measures (CBMs) failed to sustain its momentum? How is Saarc, which was a ray of hope for a better future in South Asia, in limbo because of India’s refusal to attend the 19th Saarc summit which was scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November 2016? These are questions raised by concerned circles that are apprehensive about the present and future of South Asia.
When, as the largest country of South Asia, India fails to fulfill its obligations to follow a policy of non-interference and sovereign equality with its neighbors, the outcome is the deepening of mistrust and suspicion between New Delhi and most of its neighbors. It is because of the lull in Pakistan-India relations since August 2019 that the outcome is fragile peace and sustained hostility. Never before has such a standoff existed between the two in the form of downgrading diplomatic missions, suspending air, road and rail links, and suspending overflights. Trade between India and Pakistan, which should have benefited the people of both countries, is at its lowest point.
Pakistan’s only eastern neighbor is India and India’s only western neighbour is Pakistan. But the lack of strategic foresight, vision and prudence tends to generate gloom and pessimism. For how long will the two countries continue to cause a ‘mutually hurting stalemate’? That remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: as long as the mindset pursued by the Modi regime, which generates hostility with Pakistan, persists, one cannot expect any paradigm shift in ties between the two. However, one needs to give optimism a chance to make headway in normalising relations between the two neighbours so that the present and future generations of the two countries do not carry the baggage of the past and move on, notwithstanding unresolved and contentious issues.
Overcoming strategic imprudence in India-Pakistan relations needs to be examined from two standpoints. First, the resumption of Track-I, Track-II and Track-III diplomacy can help mend fences between the two. Track-I diplomacy means dialogue between officials of the two adversaries and is evident from the first round of face-to-face talks between the US and Iranian delegations in Islamabad. Unfortunately, Track-I is frozen between India and Pakistan, particularly since August 2019.
There was a time when Track-I was fully operational, with frequent meetings between officials of India and Pakistan. The holding of composite dialogue between India and Pakistan is a case in point. From 1997 to 2009, composite dialogue was held, focusing on Kashmir, trade, cultural issues, nuclear issues, water, Siachen and Sir Creek. For years, the composite dialogue was held, which was a positive sign of negotiations aimed at managing and resolving contentious issues. There are reports of backchannel negotiations between India and Pakistan since May 2025, but there is no verification about the holding and outcome of such talks.
Track-II dialogue involves non-officials who have the blessings of the two governments. This track is held, particularly when Track-I is not operational. For years, several Track-II initiatives were launched in which non-officials participated.
Track-III dialogue is purely based on people-to-people interaction, like the one held under the auspices of the Indo-Pakistan People’s Forum for Peace and Democracy. But since 2009, and more particularly since 2016, Track-III dialogue has taken a back seat. When the issuance of visas is a major issue, the holding of Track-II and III dialogues is at stake.
All three tracks of dialogue between India and Pakistan are not active under the prevailing conditions. The only prudent way to resume the Indo-Pak peace process is by activating all three tracks.
Second, there cannot be a breakthrough in Indo-Pak relations unless both sides demonstrate adequate political will and determination, along with strategic perseverance, foresight and prudence.
To that end, the Indian leadership needs to understand that by pursuing a hostile mindset with Pakistan and suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, things will not transform for the better.
If India takes the initiative in resuming Track-I, Track-II and Track-III dialogue, Pakistan will certainly reciprocate. It is true that since the Kargil War of 1999, enough damage has been caused to Pakistan-India relations, but optimism must prevail over pessimism because at stake is the future of 1.3 billion people in the two countries.
Zero tolerance against terrorism and violence is the need of the hour. With better trust and understanding, there is no reason why India and Pakistan cannot normalise their relations.
What is required is confidence-building and trust without compromising territorial integrity and sovereignty equality. Threats and acts of belligerence will not work. What is required is to pursue an approach based on a win-win situation instead of a lose-win one. The task is difficult but not impossible.
