Pakistan GDP growth stood at 3.65 percent for the year to June 2026, the government said on Monday, a small cut from the earlier 3.70 percent.
The National Accounts Committee made the revision at its 118th meeting at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in Islamabad. It blamed a mild slowdown in industry and services.
In May, officials had expected 3.70 percent, after cutting an earlier forecast of 4 percent. The country therefore fell short of its target.
Pakistan GDP growth by sector
Within the Pakistan GDP growth numbers, agriculture did better than first thought, with growth raised to 3.50 percent from 2.89 percent. Wheat and maize lifted important crops, while pulses, fruit, tomatoes and oilseeds helped other crops.
Industry slowed to 3.34 percent from 3.51 percent. Large-scale manufacturing grew 5.01 percent, down from an earlier 6.11 percent. Cars grew 57.77 percent and transport equipment 42.36 percent.
Even so, some industries shrank. Medicines fell 8.87 percent, iron and steel 7.84 percent, chemicals 2.53 percent and leather 1.95 percent.
Mining improved to 1.52 percent, helped by gas, crude oil and coal. Construction rose to 6.30 percent on more public-sector spending. Services grew 3.81 percent, below the earlier 4.09 percent. Finance and insurance rebounded to 4.23 percent from 0.32 percent, helped by insurance, while wholesale and retail trade slowed to 2.37 percent. Information and communication rose to 9.53 percent, but public administration, education and health all lost pace.
Pakistan GDP growth by quarter
Farming gave a lift in the final quarter, with growth of 3.71 percent against 0.58 percent a year before. The first three quarters came in at 3.89, 4.31 and 4.42 percent. The last quarter slowed sharply to 2 percent, against 6.07 percent a year earlier.
Reports tie that drop to a sharp turn in industry, above all power, gas and water supply.
The committee also trimmed growth for the 2024-25 year to 3.11 percent from 3.18 percent. It also folded updated import data for the five years from 2020-21 into the national accounts.
For that earlier year, farm growth fell to 1.32 percent from 1.53 percent, and industry eased to 5.46 percent from 5.56 percent. Services held almost steady at 3.13 percent.
Bigger economy, thin incomes
The economy reached $450.4 billion, up from $410.96 billion a year earlier. Services drove most of the rise, followed by industry and livestock. In rupee terms, output rose to Rs126.4 trillion from Rs114.9 trillion.
Income per person edged up to $1,896 from $1,824, or Rs531,897 in local currency. That is the lowest in the region. Inflation has squeezed disposable income, which limits people’s ability to spend, save or invest.
The new figure sits close to outside forecasts. The International Monetary Fund had projected 3.6 percent. Meanwhile, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank both projected 3.7 percent, and the State Bank expected growth near that level.
Because of the weak last quarter, analysts will watch whether Pakistan GDP growth can recover in the current fiscal year. For now, the revised numbers show a modest recovery that remains below target.
