WASHINGTON: An Iran campaign warning has reached several Gulf Arab states, after the US told them to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the midterms.
A US newspaper reported the warnings on Wednesday, drawing on people who attended the briefings. Officials passed them along through diplomatic and military channels.
What the Iran campaign warning says
Trump has made no final decision, people familiar with his thinking said. They said he leans toward a large attack once the November 3 midterm elections pass.
Strike packages cover Iranian energy infrastructure, hardened nuclear research sites, and missile and drone factories. Planners want leverage that forces Tehran into sweeping concessions at the table. Trump himself has ruled out any attack before the midterms. At a rally in Lubbock, Texas, he said, “You’ll see Iran in a couple of weeks.” The US and Israel began the war on February 28, and Tehran answered with missile and drone attacks across the region.
Together with other signs, the Iran campaign warning shows that Washington and Israel are readying fresh heavy operations. Their aim, the report said, is to weaken Iran and push Tehran toward talks.
At a rally last week, Trump said the US might do another “little Epic Fury,” a nod to the heavy bombing campaign of the spring, “or they’ll agree.”
Military moves behind the Iran campaign warning
Officials described preparations that give the president options. Flight-tracking data and two officials point to a Patriot battery heading from Texas to Israel.
Forces nearby are restocking munitions, while bombers and fighters ready themselves for strikes. Troops have also left bases that look vulnerable.
Next month, one more carrier group and a Marine expeditionary unit will join the roughly 20 warships stationed around the region.
Israel has drawn up its own strike plans and target lists. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps pressing for strikes to restart.
Gulf fears and the market risk
Gulf capitals fear that new escalation could expose desalination plants, export terminals and key energy corridors to Iranian drones and missiles. Tehran has vowed to retaliate. It warned of attacks on economic and civilian targets around the region, and it still holds hundreds to thousands of missiles.
Iran, the report added, used the lull to rebuild missiles and defences. Meanwhile, inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog still cannot reach damaged nuclear sites.
Oil traders see an upside risk. Brent crude already trades near $115, and a Houthi claim about a refinery adds to supply nerves. OPEC+ also looks unlikely to add barrels on Sunday.
One analysis says a risk premium could grow before the midterms. It also warns that freight and insurance costs for Gulf shipping face exposure. Higher crude would add to inflation pressure and complicate central bank policy. Money may also flow into the dollar as a safe haven, whereas gold has tended to slip when escalation lifts rate expectations.
Diplomacy still struggles
Mediators are trying to revive talks, but they report little progress. Defence analysts caution that more bombing may not force Iran to give in. Instead, they say, it could speed Tehran’s drive toward a nuclear deterrent and long-range missiles. The White House would not discuss military plans.
It said Trump keeps every option open to stop Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon. For now, the Iran campaign warning leaves Gulf capitals bracing for what comes after November 3.
