One year to the May 2025 war between India and Pakistan, the remarkable air war has turned out to be a decisive event that will continue to shape the future course of global policy towards South Asia.
The failure of the Indian narrative in the face of the globally acclaimed air dominance of Pakistan has shifted the global posture in favour of Pakistan. On the diplomatic front, states expressed caution against the escalation in the nuclear-armed region. During the escalatory period, Turkiye expressed support for Pakistan, and China condemned Indian aggression. Israel was the only state that exhibited explicit support for Indian aggression. Russia, Japan, Iran, the UAE, Qatar, France, the UK and the US called for restraint. In the long run, the air war has changed the military, strategic and economic policies of regional and global actors towards the region, and the strategic standing of India and Pakistan.
Militarily, the peculiar dynamics of the conflict attracted significant global attention. Military strategists drew lessons from the conflict on air doctrine. The Indian Air Force (IAF) had a two-fold preliminary advantage: first, it shaped the course of escalation to its own advantage as an offensive actor, and second, it had a numerical advantage. However, the astonishing retaliation from the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), despite being dragged into the conflict, neutralised the Indian advantage. Both states also resorted to drone technology for the first time in the decades-long rivalry. Military strategists have highlighted the significant role of counter-drone technologies in the future of Air warfare.
Similarly, on the strategic front, the May 2025 air war depicted that the nature of conflict has evolved under the nuclear umbrella. The propensity of India to escalate on the air front has raised questions about nuclear deterrence, whereas the apt response from PAF has highlighted the relevance of conventional deterrence even under the nuclear umbrella. Beyond the conventional fronts, the narrative propagation has further complicated the strategic calculus, as the role of successful narrative projection during the conflict has also drawn strategic attention in the aftermath.
While Indian media went all out to propagate the false narrative, aligned with the BJP’s anti-Pakistan jingoism, Pakistan’s ISPR provided credible media coverage as well as evidence-based reports regarding the status of the conflict. Overall, independent sources verified the facts presented by Pakistan and determined that narrative warfare based on misinformation cannot stand fact-based, transparent official narrative.
Multiple layers of the conflict have attracted strategic calculations in the aftermath. First, the conflict has also been framed in the matrix of great-power politics between the US and China. The victory in the air war has brought relative strategic autonomy to Pakistan in the aftermath, enabling it to balance its regional and global foreign policy rather than resorting to camp politics. Second, the success or failure of technologies in the conflict attracted significant attention. The PAF’s seamless performance highlighted the efficiency of Chinese J-10 C jets, whereas the IAF’s misadventure raised concerns about French Rafale jets.
Military and strategic calculations have also impacted the economics of defence procurement. The seamless performance of the PAF marked the successful debut of Chinese fighter jets in a combat situation. The trend subsequently shifted in favour of China, as Chengdu Aircraft Corporation recorded $7.6 billion in sales due to spikes in J-10C fighter jet sales. The demand for drones, stealth aircraft and electronic warfare systems has also increased.
In a nutshell, Pakistan has emerged as the victor from the Indian misadventure in the region. The long-lasting reverberations of the Air Clash between India and Pakistan have shifted the regional strategic balance in Pakistan’s favour.
Over the past decade, India has developed a pattern of exploiting nationalist military escalation as a tool for domestic electoral campaigns. However, the political cost inflicted by the May 2025 air war, in addition to the economic cost, is likely to demand a thorough recalibration from the Indian side to demarcate domestic politics from future military misadventures.
