ISLAMABAD: Seven years after India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, public disaffection continues to grow despite improvements in security, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG).
In a report titled “A Trigger in Jammu and Kashmir: Militant Violence under Indian Central Rule”, the conflict-prevention organisation says New Delhi’s heavy-handed approach has failed to eliminate militancy and risks triggering renewed unrest.
“Another incident in Indian-administered Kashmir or elsewhere in India could trigger conflict between the two nuclear powers once again,” the report warns.
The ICG urges India to restore Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood, return powers to regional authorities and curb the use of stringent anti-terrorism laws. It also calls on India and Pakistan to revive high-level back-channel diplomacy to reduce the risk of another confrontation.
“Seven years after New Delhi imposed far-reaching reforms in Jammu and Kashmir to counter militancy and usher in peace and stability, disaffection and alienation are quietly rising,” said Praveen Donthi, the ICG’s senior analyst.
Although militant violence, street demonstrations and stone-throwing incidents have declined, the region remains vulnerable to renewed unrest, the report says.
The ICG argues that stability cannot be achieved through central rule, strict law enforcement and counter-insurgency operations alone. It says some Kashmiris have become more sympathetic to militant groups because they see armed resistance as the only way to oppose New Delhi’s policies.
The report also urges India to reconsider its position that Operation Sindoor has merely been paused, a stance that leaves open the possibility of further military action after another attack. While intended to strengthen deterrence, the approach could keep India on a prolonged war footing and heighten the risk of conflict with Pakistan, the ICG warns.
A senior leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological parent organisation of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has recently called for keeping the door to dialogue with Pakistan open while maintaining India’s right to respond to alleged militant attacks.
Given the RSS’s influence, the remarks could help ease domestic opposition to engagement with Pakistan. Islamabad has responded cautiously, with Pakistan’s foreign ministry waiting to see whether the call reflects official Indian policy.
